Nationally, the real estate market has been slower over the past couple of years, but new data for 2025 shows a shift, and it’s good news for both buyers and sellers.
Let’s take a look at what’s happening.
Mortgage Rates Are Improving
The biggest driver of the turnaround is mortgage rates.
- Mortgage rates have moved from the 7% range down into the low 6% range.
This drop has made homeownership more affordable than it has been in recent years.
Lower rates equal lower monthly payments. In fact, the average mortgage payment has dropped by more than $300/month since spring.
Affordability Is Still a Challenge — But Improving
Affordability is driven by three factors:
- Mortgage rates
- Home prices
- Wages/income
Here’s the progress:
- Mortgage rates have fallen
- Home price growth has cooled, not collapsed
- Wages are rising
Because of that combination, buyers have more purchasing power today than at any time since early 2022.
Turnover Has Been at Historic Lows
A recent Redfin study revealed:
Only 28 out of 1,000 homes sold in 2025! This is the lowest turnover in 30 years.
Why so few? Three reasons:
- Affordability challenges pushed buyers to the sidelines
- Rate lock — 70% of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 5%
- Economic uncertainty has caused hesitation
But we are finally seeing signs of movement:
- More homeowners are deciding to sell, even if they’ll give up their low rate.
- Life changes (new job, growing family, downsizing) are outweighing the desire to stay put.
Inventory Is Rising
For the first time since 2019, active inventory has stayed above 1 million homes for six straight months.
Homes are taking slightly longer to sell (around 63 days), which is normal for a balanced market.
- More homes on the market = more options for buyers
- More sellers listing = easing of the “rate lock” effect
Buyers Are Coming Back
Mortgage applications are 20% higher than a year ago.
Forecasts show that total home sales (new + existing) will increase in 2026:
| Year | Total Home Sales Forecast |
| 2024 | 4.7 million |
| 2025 | 4.8 million |
| 2026 | 5.2 million |
The market isn’t exploding, it’s normalizing.
Home Prices Are Still Rising (Just Slower)
Nationally, prices are expected to appreciate modestly:
Forecasted home price growth into 2026: ~2% common in a normal market.
And over the next five years?
The typical homeowner stands to gain $61,000 in equity.
Buyers waiting for prices to fall could mean missing out on significant equity growth.
What This Means for You
If you’re thinking of buying:
Lower rates + more inventory = more negotiating power and lower payments.
But, you need to be ready! You’ve got to have that mortgage pre-approval done (or proof of funds for a cash purchase), hire an agent and be ready to make a strong offer.
If you’re thinking of selling:
Inventory is rising, but demand is rising too. Selling before inventory increases further could help maximize your price. There is less competition now than there will be in the spring. Consider selling during the holidays; your home will appear warm and cozy.
Final Thought
There are still challenges in the market — but the data is clear: The housing market is beginning to move again. Going into 2026, we’re shifting from frozen… to thawing… to moving.
Ready to Talk Strategy for Your Next Move?
Whether you’re buying or selling, this market requires a clear plan — not guesswork. I offer buyer consultations to explain the process of buying a home, so you’re going into it educated and ready to move forward.
I also offer seller consultations, including a free advanced market analysis for your home, showing you the value of your home according to the current market. Should you decide to list your home with me, you’ll benefit from other services that I offer, like 3D photography and interactive floorplans as part of the marketing to help you
Click here to schedule a free strategy session
(or reply to this post with “Market Update” and I’ll reach out)
During the session, we’ll:
- Review your goals
- Talk timing and pricing
- Share your local market data (not just national numbers)
- Build a personalized plan to move confidently in 2025
No pressure. No obligation. Just facts and guidance.
Let’s make your next move your smartest move yet.